浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)
 
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  2011, Vol. 41 Issue (5): 175-187    DOI:
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Subject Behavior , Expectation For mation and St abili ty in Real Estate Market
He Jingtong    Xu Lu

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Abstract  

Based on the theory of behavi oral economics , a study on market subiect decision- making process and operating mechanism of our real estate market is carried out theoretically and empirically. The result shows that behavi ors of government , real estate developers and residents are significantly affected by some behavi or factors such as money illusion , overconfidence , one-sided information and monopoly supply, which continue to push up the appreciation expectations of the real estate , and the behavi ors are strengt hened when the expectation comes true . The appreciation expectation continues to increase for this positive feedback process , whichis alsotheimportant drivi ngforce of the sustained high growt h of real estate market in China . Estimated results show that 43 .42 % of the estate turnover growt h results fromthese behavi or factors . The neglect of behavi or factors is the fundamental reason why our control policies impact little on real estate market in recent years . In conclusion , several policies , includi ng the reduction of frequent publication of one-sided information , the change of the direct dependence on land finance of local government and the elimi nation of monopoly supply of real estate , are suggested to establish a sound marketization performance mechanis m, so as to achieve a stable development in real estate market .

Key wordsbehavior factors          subiect behavior          positive feedback appreciation expectation          stability in real estate market     
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