The Impact of Policy Tools for China’s Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality on Common Prosperity: Evidence from County-level Data of Chinese Certified Emissions Reduction Projects
Fang Kai1,2,3,4, Mao Mengyuan5, Liu Xiao1, Li Shi1, Chen Shuai1, Liu Peilin2
1.School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China 2.Research Center for Regional Coordinated Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China 3.Zhejiang Ecological Civilization Academy, Huzhou 313300, China 4.Innovation Center of Yangtze River Delta, Zhejiang University, Jiaxing 314100, China 5.Bureau of Education, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City, Hangzhou 311201, China
Abstract:In the new development stage, it is of significance to explore policy tools that facilitate the simultaneous realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and common prosperity. Based on the data of 2,492 Chinese certified emission reduction (CCER) projects in 2,195 districts and counties in China from 2013 through 2019, this paper investigates the impact of CCER projects on the per capita disposable income of rural residents and the underlying mechanism by establishing a fixed effect panel model. The research results are verified by a suite of model settings, robustness tests and mechanism analyses.Compared with existing studies, the marginal contributions of this paper are threefold. First, we aim at validating the policy synergies between carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and common prosperity by exploring the relationship between CCER projects and farmers’ income. Second, we compile and analyze the data for the number of projects and installed capacity of 2,492 CCERs and the 6-year per capita disposable income of rural residents in 2,195 districts and counties throughout China. Third, to make the research results scientifically robust, a two-way fixed effects panel model is developed in combination with instrumental variables test, mechanism analysis and heterogeneity analysis. For example, to address the endogeneity issue, this paper selects annual average wind speed and sunshine hours for instrumental variables testing and further eliminates the effect of pro-poor policies through heterogeneity testing.These findings can not only provide a scientific basis for timely resuming the approval of CCER projects and increasing the share of CCER projects in the national emission trading scheme, but also provide empirical evidences that support the policy synergies of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and common prosperity. In the next step, it is necessary to explore various socioeconomic effects produced by the CCER projects as this is the key to generating policy synergies between climate action and human welfare in a broader sense.The results showed that (1) the CCER projects have significantly improved the income of rural resident; (2) the increase in local non-agricultural employment constitutes the core of the mechanism; (3) the impact of the CCER projects on rural residents’ income vary across the regions, and faster increase in rural income is observed in areas with a relatively low non-agricultural employment rate.
方恺, 毛梦圆, 刘潇, 李实, 陈帅, 刘培林. 双碳政策工具的共同富裕效应[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2023, 53(2): 101-115.
Fang Kai, Mao Mengyuan, Liu Xiao, Li Shi, Chen Shuai, Liu Peilin. The Impact of Policy Tools for China’s Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality on Common Prosperity: Evidence from County-level Data of Chinese Certified Emissions Reduction Projects. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2023, 53(2): 101-115.
1 刘培林、钱滔、黄先海等: 《共同富裕的内涵、实现路径与测度方法》,《管理世界》2021年第8期,第117-119页。 2 李实、朱梦冰: 《推进收入分配制度改革 促进共同富裕实现》,《管理世界》2022年第1期,第52-61页。 3 Fang K., Zhang Q. & Song J. et al., “How can national ETS affect carbon emissions and abatement costs? evidence from the dual goals proposed by China’s NDCs,” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 171(2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105638. 4 Steckel J. C., Dorband I. I. & Montrone L. et al., “Distributional impacts of carbon pricing in developing Asia,” Nature Sustainability, Vol. 4 (2021), pp. 1005-1014. 5 Budolfson M., Dennig F. & Errickson F. et al., “Climate action with revenue recycling has benefits for poverty, inequality and well-being,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, No. 12 (2021), pp.1111-1116. 6 Lo A. Y. & Cong R., “After CDM: domestic carbon offsetting in China,” Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 141 (2017), pp. 1391-1399. 7 Li L., Ye F. & Li Y. et al., “How will the Chinese certified emission reduction scheme save cost for the national carbon trading system?” Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 244 (2019), pp. 99-109. 8 Ye F., Xiong X. & Li L. et al., “Measuring the effectiveness of the Chinese certified emission reduction scheme in mitigating CO2 emissions: a system dynamics approach,” Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 294 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125355. 9 Thomas S. P. & Griffiths D. A., “The drivers and outcomes of the clean development mechanism in China,” Environmental Policy and Governance, Vol. 21, No. 4 (2011), pp. 223-239. 10 Du Y. & Takeuchi K., “Can climate mitigation help the poor? measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 95 (2019), pp. 178-197. 11 何建坤: 《全球气候治理新形势及我国对策》,《环境经济研究》2019年第4期,第1-9页。 12 袁晓玲、李朝鹏、方恺: 《中国城镇化进程中的空气污染研究回顾与展望》,《经济学动态》2019年第5期,第88-103页。 13 尹成杰: 《巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的长效机制与政策研究》,《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2022年第1期,第25-30页。 14 邵帅、杨振兵: 《环境规制与劳动需求:双重红利效应存在吗?——来自中国工业部门的经验证据》,《环境经济研究》2017年第2期,第64-80页。 15 Lin B. & Li X., “The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO2 emissions,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 9 (2011), pp. 5137-5146. 16 Cao J., Dai H. & Li S. et al., “The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: a multi-model comparison,” Energy Economics, Vol. 99 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105284. 17 Hammar H. & Sj?str?m M., “Accounting for behavioral effects of increases in the carbon dioxide (CO2) tax in revenue estimation in Sweden,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 10 (2011), pp. 6672-6676. 18 吴力波、钱浩祺、汤维祺: 《基于动态边际减排成本模拟的碳排放权交易与碳税选择机制》,《经济研究》2014年第9期,第48-61页。 19 Nong D., Nguyen T. H. & Wang C., “The environmental and economic impact of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam,” Energy Policy, Vol. 140 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111362. 20 方恺、张琦峰、杜立民: 《初始排放权分配对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响分析》,《环境科学学报》2021年第2期,第696-709页。 21 Cao L., Tang Y. & Cai B. et al., “Was it better or worse? simulating the environmental and health impacts of emissions trading scheme in Hubei Province, China,” Energy, Vol. 217(2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119427. 22 Yi L., Bai N. & Yang L. et al., “Evaluation on the effectiveness of China’s pilot carbon market policy,” Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 246 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119039. 23 Wen H., Chen Z. & Nie P., “Environmental and economic performance of China’s ETS pilots: New evidence from an expanded synthetic control method,” Energy Reports, Vol. 7 (2021), pp. 2999-3010. 24 Qi T. & Weng Y., “Economic impacts of an international carbon market in achieving the INDC targets,” Energy, Vol. 109 (2016), pp. 886-893. 25 Huang H., Roland-Holst D. & Springer C. et al., “Emissions trading systems and social equity: a CGE assessment for China,” Applied Energy, Vol. 235 (2019), pp. 1254-1265. 26 Fang K., Mao M. & Tian C. et al., “Exploring the impact of emissions trading schemes on income inequality between urban and rural areas,” Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 329 (2023), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117067. 27 Pécastaing N., Dávalos J. & Inga A., “The effect of Peru’s CDM investments on households’ welfare: an econometric approach,” Energy Policy, Vol. 123 (2018), pp. 198-207. 28 Li H., Guo S. & Wang B., “Analysis on environmental value of wind power in China,” Energy Technology and Economics, Vol. 23 (2011), pp. 35-39. 29 Bayer P., Dolan L. & Urpelainen J., “Global patterns of renewable energy innovation, 1990-2009,” Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol. 17, No. 3 (2013), pp. 288-295. 30 Zhao H., Guo S. & Fu L., “Review on the costs and benefits of renewable energy power subsidy in China,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 37 (2014), pp. 538-549. 31 张宁、庞军: 《全国碳市场引入CCER交易及抵消机制的经济影响研究》,《气候变化研究进展》2020年第9期,第1-18页。 32 朱玮强、顾蕾、李佳等: 《基于B-S期权定价的安吉县CCER竹林经营碳汇项目经济效益评估》,《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》2018年第4期,第18-24页。 33 李凡略、何可、张俊飚: 《价值认知对规模养猪户农业碳交易参与意愿及期望碳价的影响——以户用沼气CCER项目为例》,《农业现代化研究》2021年第5期,第889-899页。 34 王小鲁、樊纲: 《中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析》,《经济研究》2005年第31期,第24-35页。 35 王海平、周江梅、林国华等: 《产业升级、农业结构调整与县域农民收入——基于福建省58个县域面板数据的研究》,《华东经济管理》2019年第33期,第23-28页。 36 范爱军、王丽丽: 《我国城镇化发展与农民收入增长的实证分析》,《山东社会科学》2007年第3期,第79-83页。 37 Briggeman B. C., Gray A. W. & Morehart M. J. et al., “A new U.S. farm household typology: implications for agricultural policy,” Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 29, No. 4 (2007), pp. 765-782. 38 蔡昉、王德文: 《经济增长成分变化与农民收入源泉》,《管理世界》2005年第5期,第77-83页。 39 钟甫宁、何军: 《增加农民收入的关键:扩大非农就业机会》,《农业经济问题》2007年第1期,第62-70页。 40 肖龙铎、张兵: 《金融可得性、非农就业与农民收入——基于CHFS数据的实证研究》,《经济科学》2017年第2期,第74-87页。 41 纪月清、刘迎霞、钟甫宁: 《家庭难以搬迁下的中国农村劳动力迁移》,《农业技术经济》2010年第11期,第4-12页。 42 骆永民、骆熙、汪卢俊: 《农村基础设施、工农业劳动生产率差距与非农就业》,《管理世界》2020年第12期,第91-121页。 43 IRENA, Renewable Energy and Jobs: Annual Review 2021, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Oct/IRENA_RE_Jobs_2021.pdf?rev=98960349dbab4af78777bc49f155d094, 2022-09-20. 44 Clausen L. T. & Rudolph D., “Renewable energy for sustainable rural development: synergies and mismatches,” Energy Policy, Vol. 138 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111289. 45 Barbier E. B., “Is green rural transformation possible in developing countries?” World Development, Vol. 131 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104955. 46 Huang J., Li W. & Guo L. et al., “Renewable energy and household economy in rural China,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 155 (2020), pp. 669-676. 47 Njoh A. J., Etta S. & Ngyah-Etchutambe I. B. et al., “Implications of institutional frameworks for renewable energy policy administration: case study of the Esaghem, Cameroon community PV solar electrification project,” Energy Policy, Vol. 128 (2019), pp. 17-24. 48 黄祖辉、宋文豪、叶春辉等: 《政府支持农民工返乡创业的县域经济增长效应——基于返乡创业试点政策的考察》,《中国农村经济》2022年第1期,第24-43页。 49 刘伟、蔡志洲: 《完善国民收入分配结构与深化供给侧结构性改革》,《经济研究》2017年第8期,第4-16页。 50 Bayer P., Urpelainen J. & Wallace J., “Who uses the Clean Development Mechanism? an empirical analysis of projects in Chinese provinces,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 23, No. 2 (2013), pp. 512-521. 51 杨庆妮: 《风力发电场的构成特点与选址研究》,《低碳世界》2015年第22期,第52-53页。 52 李付林: 《影响光伏电站选址布局的因素分析》,《经济研究导刊》2019年第36期,第21-22页。 53 燕继荣: 《反贫困与国家治理——中国“脱贫攻坚”的创新意义》,《管理世界》2020年第4期,第209-220页。 54 文洪星、韩青: 《非农就业如何影响农村居民家庭消费——基于总量与结构视角》,《中国农村观察》2018年第3期,第91-109页。 55 Zhang Q. & Fang K., “Comment on ‘Consumption-based versus production-based accounting of CO2 emissions: is there evidence for carbon leakage?’” Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 101 (2019), pp. 94-96. 56 赵荣钦、黄贤金、郧文聚等: 《碳达峰碳中和目标下自然资源管理领域的关键问题》,《自然资源学报》2022年第1期,第1123-1136页。 57 Ye R., Gao Z. & Fang K. et al., “Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: a system dynamics analysis of China’s NEVs in the post-subsidy era,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 168 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120757.