Political risk is taken as the starting point for assessing overseas investment projects,and it is also a crucial factor which influences the success of foreign investment . Therefore,to analyze the factors influencing the political risk and to construct a sensitive early warning system of political risk is of great practical and theoretical significance . Although there are some professional institutions worldwide that are specialized in measuring political risk,their assessments are simply conducted based on the host countries'o wn political,economic and social environment,ignoring the specific political risk of foreign direct investments regarding to a particular home country and a particular host country . Moreover,most of the political risk researches focused on risk assessment and prevention,but few of them paid attention to the early warning system . As a supplement of the previous researches,this paper aims to provide macro-levelpolitical risk information for Chinese overseas investments by constructing an early warning system of political risk in26 countries where Chinese investment flow abroad . On the basis of the summary of the relevant researches on political risk,this paper has explained the formation mechanism of the political risk and analyze the main factors influencing the political risk,which can be considered in the political,economic and social dimensions . We have proposed an indicators system to assess and predict the macro-political risk faced by Chinese OFDI . The indicators system suggested in this study consists of indicators such as political stability,the distance of the democracy degrees between China and the host country,the distance of the corruption levels between China and the host country,the host country's law culture,the host country's dependence on China,per capita income of the host country,GDP growth,inflation rate . With the annual data on the8 indicators of the indicators systemfrom2002 to2009,we have given scores to26 host countries according to principal component analysis in terms of their macro political risk . Then this paper further classifies the political risk of these years into four levels : danger,alerting,basically safe and safe . Additionally,this paper has constructed an early warning system in political risk for foreign investment of Chinese companies based on BP Artificial Neural Network,through which we also predict the political risk of Chinese foreign investment in2010 . Based on the empirical study mentioned above,we argue that Chinese investors should guard against risk arising from political factors in politically and economically less-developed countries,against risk arising from economic factors in politically and economically moderately developed countries which also maintain good diplomatic relations and have less cultural differences with China,and against risk arising from political,cultural and social factors in politically and economically highly developed countries .
陈菲琼 钟芳芳. 中国海外直接投资政治风险预警系统研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2012, 42(1): 87-99.
Chen Feiqiong Zhong Fangfang. Early Warning System of Chinese OFDI Political Risk. , 2012, 42(1): 87-99.