Abstract：China' s grain supply-demand variation affects its domestic grain security,and obviously interacts with the world food market .Given the population,economy and resources in the future,it is necessary to take some new scenarios into account to underline the tendency of China' s grain supply anddemand under globalization .The results show that :the appreciationof RMB stimulates global grain production and trade,while it has some negative impacts on China' s corn and beans;global biofuel development widens the gap between global grain supply and demand,and the change of world grain pattern may make a shift on China' s international grain resources;the effect of China' s grain subsidies on grain production increase is significant in the long run,but the acute structure imbalance continues in grain market .It is essential to improve grain market mechanism,adjust domestic grain supply-demand structure,and exploit international grain market toattain Chinese grain equilibrium .
陆文聪 祁慧博 李元龙. 全球化背景下的中国粮食供求变化趋势[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2011, 41(1): 5-18.
Lu Wencong Qi Huibo Li Yuanlong. The Tendency of China's Grain Supply and Demand under Globalization. , 2011, 41(1): 5-18.
