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浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)  2022, Vol. 52 Issue (3): 84-99    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.CN33-6000/C.2021.09.066
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就地过年政策可以促进人们择期返乡吗?——基于手机信令大数据的实证分析
董照樱子1, 王晓亮2, 张蔚文1, 汤劲松2
1.浙江大学 公共管理学院,浙江 杭州 310058
2.中国移动通信集团 浙江有限公司,浙江 杭州 310020
Does the Policy of "Staying Put During the Spring Festival" Encourage People to Return Home at Another Time?
Dong Zhaoyingzi1, Wang Xiaoliang2, Zhang Weiwen1, Tang Jinsong2
1.School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
2.China Mobile, Zhejiang Co., Ltd, Hangzhou 310020, China

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摘要 2021年1月初,新冠肺炎疫情在我国多地零星散发,各地陆续发出就地过年的倡议。基于手机信令大数据的分析表明,就地过年政策会鼓励人们择期返乡:2021年春节返乡人数仅是2019年同期的45%,清明返乡人数则达到2019年的1.76倍,二者存在替代效应,且返乡地远的人2021年更倾向选择清明返乡。此外,就地过年政策中的现金类激励政策效应显著,其他类政策则不然。因此,可从需求端入手探讨缓解春运压力的可能途径,以及解决我国城镇化过程中体制性问题和矛盾的可能方案。
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董照樱子
王晓亮
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汤劲松
关键词 人口流动春节返乡清明返乡就地过年政策手机信令数据    
Abstract:The Spring Festival, China’s most important annual celebration, is a tradition in which people return to their hometown and spend the festivities with their families. However, in 2021, large numbers of new COVID-19 cases across China prior to the Spring Festival, threatened the control of the pandemic, and to prevent the spread of COVID-19 many local governments implemented the policy of “staying put during the Spring Festival” and provided different kinds of subsidies to encourage working laborers to stay where they work to keep safe.But how effective was this policy in affecting people’s decisions to return to their hometowns? Did it merely encourage residents to return at another time, such as Qingming Festival, rather than during the Spring Festival? If yes, what kind of policy is more effective in stimulating people to “staying put during the Spring Festival”. By answering these questions, with a descriptive, rather than emprical analysis of the returning behaviors, this study tries to analyze the effect of the policy on short-term migration both theoretically and empirically, and fill a gap in the literature.Based on the principle of the maximization of profit and the minimization of risk from the new economics of labor migration theory, this study first explores how the policy and the pandemic affect people’s decisions by altering profit and risks of returning home, and then identifies and compares the returning behavior of 37,281,533 subjects working in Zhejiang during the Spring and Qingming Festivals in 2019 and 2021 using China Mobile signaling data grouped with the policy of each county in Zhejiang. These in turn are subject to an empirical discussion of the role of the “staying put” policy on migrant workers’ returning behavior in different regions.The empirical results reveal the following: first, the proportion of workers returning home in 2021 is lower during the Spring Festival (45%) and higher during the Qingming Festival (176%) than that of 2019. In addition, the higher the proportion of returning home during the Spring Festival, the lower that of returning home during the Qingming Festival. These results suggest that people choose another time to return to their hometown; secondly, due to the higher risks brought by long-distance travel, laborers whose returning distance is longer prefer to return home during the Qingming Festival rather than the Spring Festival. In addition, the decision to return to the hometown is also affected by the industrial structure, population size, and economic development of work and home places; thirdly, regression analysis proves that the “staying put during the Spring Festival” policy encourages people to choose another time to return home overall. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the cash-incentive policy effectively prompts people to stay put during the Spring Festival and return home at another time, while the other policies do not have a significant effect. What is more, the policy is more effective for people who work closer to their hometowns, and an increase in distance will weaken the effectiveness of the policy.In recent years, to relieve the traffic pressure from the Spring Festival’s mass migration, China has taken various measures from the supply side, such as increasing railway capacity and adjusting the train schedules. However, these measures have caused an enormous waste of resources on regular days. The results of study provide clear implications for alleviating the traffic pressure of the Spring Festival from the demand side, preventing certain social risks during some special periods (such as pandemics), and propose possible solutions to institutional and social problems in the process of urbanization. Nevertheless, to solve the underlying social problems behind the mass migration during the Spring Festival, it is necessary to provide more measures to help the migrants integrate into the cities where they work and become a real part of the local society.
Key wordspopulation migration    Spring Festival travel season    Qingming Festival travel season    “staying put during the Spring Festival” policy    cellular phone signaling big data   
收稿日期: 2021-09-06     
基金资助:国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA071);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71874156);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72004199);浙江省自然科学探索类项目(LQ21G030012)
作者简介: 1.董照樱子(https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6154-9599),女,浙江大学公共管理学院博士后研究人员,主要从事城市数字治理、环境经济与政策研究;;2.王晓亮(https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3782-093X),男,中国移动通信集团高级工程师,主要从事空间规划和智能交通大数据分析研究;;3.张蔚文(https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2728-5803),女,浙江大学公共管理学院教授,博士生导师,主要从事城市发展与管理、资源环境经济与政策研究;;4..汤劲松(https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3193-4047),男,中国移动通信集团高级工程师,工学博士,主要从事通信大数据应用研;
引用本文:   
董照樱子, 王晓亮, 张蔚文, 汤劲松. 就地过年政策可以促进人们择期返乡吗?——基于手机信令大数据的实证分析[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2022, 52(3): 84-99. Dong Zhaoyingzi, Wang Xiaoliang, Zhang Weiwen, Tang Jinsong. Does the Policy of "Staying Put During the Spring Festival" Encourage People to Return Home at Another Time?. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2022, 52(3): 84-99.
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https://www.zjujournals.com/soc/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.CN33-6000/C.2021.09.066     或     https://www.zjujournals.com/soc/CN/Y2022/V52/I3/84
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