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浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)  2022, Vol. 52 Issue (2): 57-72    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.CN33-6000/C.2021.06.044
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新时代我国能源可持续发展评估研究
丁守海, 徐政, 江小鹏
中国人民大学 应用经济学院,北京 100872
A Research on China’s Energy Sustainable Development Evaluation in the New Era
Ding Shouhai, Xu Zheng, Jiang Xiaopeng
School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

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摘要 煤价飙升和煤炭供应不足所导致的拉闸限电现象引起了社会各界的广泛关注,中共十九届五中全会也强调了能源安全和可持续发展的重要性。基于2005—2018年的省级面板数据,从供应端、需求端和负担力三方面构建指标体系来综合评价各区域能源可持续发展的动态变化,研究发现:总体上看,各省区市能源发展水平都有不同程度的提升,山东、北京、辽宁、江苏、广东总指数排名靠前,而江西、贵州、宁夏、海南、青海的能源发展水平则相对较低;分区域来看,东部地区的能源发展水平在供应端、需求端和负担力方面均处于领先地位,而西部地区则较为落后;从成因上看,发达地区和人口稠密区的需求端和负担力指数远大于其他区域。为实现最优路径,各区域应从清洁转型、技术转型、战略规划等三方面因地制宜选择发展模式。
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丁守海
徐政
江小鹏
关键词 能源可持续发展熵值法能源需求端能源供应端能源负担力    
Abstract:In 2021, China entered the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. However, the post-pandemic era is a crucial strategic one for the country. The process of economic globalization and world multi-polarization will make profound adjustments and changes. Recently, due to the soaring coal prices and insufficient energy supply, power outages have attracted widespread attention from all walks of life. Consequently, economic uncertainty has increased, and the international environment has become unprecedentedly complex. The issues of energy security and sustainable development are particularly important. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee also emphasized these issues, it is urgent to achieve a sustainable development of the energy industry with green, clean, safe, reliable, innovative and high-quality supplies. Then, the conference further proposes the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Understanding the level of sustainable development in the country is the first step. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a systematic framework to evaluate the energy development level of China based on the energy utilization status.Hence, we construct an analytical framework with 35 indicators from three aspects of the energy supply side, demand side and affordability. We use the entropy method to analyze the energy sustainable development level of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2018. The following conclusions are drawn. From the perspective of weight, the energy supply side has the highest weight and the demand side has the lowest weight in the first-level indicators. Beijing, Liaoning, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rank high in the overall index, while Jiangxi, Guizhou, Ningxia, Hainan, Qinghai and other provinces have relatively low levels of sustainable development. From the perspective of regions, the energy development of the eastern regions are all in the leading position, while the western regions lag behind, but there is an upward trend in recent years. From the perspective of administrative divisions, different geographical regions have different endowment advantages and development characteristics. The northern regions have abundant energy resources. Therefore, resources and thermal power infrastructure have a relatively large comparative advantage in energy supply. The eastern regions have a relatively low-carbon position because of their financial revenue and expenditure, population sizes, energy infrastructure, and cleaner production. They have a relatively low-carbon and sustainable demand development prospect. From the perspective of economic development level, the demand and affordability index of developed regions are much larger than that of the other regions, while the supply side index is slightly lower than in other regions. From the perspective of population density, the results of densely populated areas are much larger than those of other regions.Finally, based on the above-mentioned detailed comparative analysis, we put forward these suggestions. In terms of clean transformation, it is necessary to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. The government should promote a gradual transformation of the energy structure to a clean and low-carbon industrial chain. In terms of technology application, the government should accelerate the implementation and application of advanced technologies, such as green hydrogen and carbon capture. It is necessary to implement policies in accordance with digital means, which can create a new growth space for a sustainable development. In terms of strategic planning, provincial governments should effectively decompose their carbon emission reduction targets as based on local reality, formulate detailed rules for energy structure transformation and use fiscal policy, financial policy and other policy tools to complete the dual control of energy consumption in an orderly manner.
Key wordssustainable development    entropy method    demand side    supply side    energy affordability   
收稿日期: 2021-06-04     
基金资助:教育部2011年中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心子项目“认识、适应和引领经济新常态研究”;中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)资助项目(10XNJ054)
作者简介: 1. 丁守海(https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9670-5352),男,中国人民大学应用经济学院教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事国民经济管理研究;2;徐政(https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3605-7511),男,中国人民大学应用经济学院博士研究生,主要从事国民经济管理研究;;江小鹏(https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4068-4393)(通信作者),男,中国人民大学应用经济学院博士研究生,主要从事产业经济学研;
引用本文:   
丁守海, 徐政, 江小鹏. 新时代我国能源可持续发展评估研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2022, 52(2): 57-72. Ding Shouhai, Xu Zheng, Jiang Xiaopeng. A Research on China’s Energy Sustainable Development Evaluation in the New Era. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2022, 52(2): 57-72.
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https://www.zjujournals.com/soc/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.CN33-6000/C.2021.06.044     或     https://www.zjujournals.com/soc/CN/Y2022/V52/I2/57
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