Abstract：Recently,the strategy of spatial development in China has become more and more important.An increasing number of researches focus on the urban economic growth and the coordinated development of regions.Urban agglomeration,as an advanced spatial pattern of urban development, breaks through the barriers of administrative divisions and organically establishes the connection of different cities in the same region.Therefore,since the beginning of the new century,the progress of urban agglomeration becomes the most important content of the regional development strategy in China.There are 10 urban agglomerations in China.Every agglomeration has one or two central cities which have various dominant functions and always play a pivotal role.It is an important measurement of the progress of urban agglomeration to identify the influences from the central city to peripheral cities,as well as to provide an important theoretical and empirical evidence to promote the urban development and regional economic integration.The main contribution of this paper is to make a significant supplement of the empirical researches on the urban and regional economics in China,and provide a new perspective for the analysis of the development progress of urban agglomeration.Based on the theoretical framework of the New Economic Geography(NEG)and the New Growth Theory,this paper gives a theoretical model about the economic development level of an area which is influenced by other areas surrounding it.In the empirical part,this paper uses the municipal panel data of the year 2000 2012,and constructs a dynamic panel model to estimate the influences from the development of central city to the economic growth of peripheral cities, and uses the system GMM method to avoid the endogenous and simultaneous problems in econometric strategy.Our findings are as follows:(1)The central city shows a positive spillover effect on the economic growth of peripheral cities according to the analysis of 136 cities of the 10 urban agglomerations in China;(2)It shows an overall trend of″down-steady-up″like″U″style between central and peripheral cities because of the time series according to classification analysis of different urban agglomerations,such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Beijing as the central city of this agglomeration shows a negative backwash effect on the peripheral cities before 2007 and a positive spillover effect after 2007;(3)The results are also different because of the heterogeneity of the internal structure of urban agglomerations,such as the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration,which has two central cities Jinan and Qingdao.The joint effects on the peripheral cities are more significant than the effects from single cities.In addition,we also find that the educational level of human capital has little effect on low-end manufacturing industry regions,and the size of local governments has a significant positive impact in the less developed areas where market investment is insufficient,such as in the middle and west regions of China. The innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,for the method of research,we construct a theoretical as well as econometric model about the economic growth of peripheral cities according to the combination of the New Growth theory and the New Economic Geography theory,and includes the spatial factors in it.Secondly,we break through the regional divisions of province or the east、middle and west districts of China,and use an urban agglomeration instead of the traditional classification unit as the obj ect of our research,then estimate the spillover or the polarization effect from central city based on the total sample including all 1 3 6 cities.Thirdly, considering the heterogeneity and time phase in different urban agglomerations we use the ten sub-samples to make empirical estimations and have a comparative analysis of the different results.
金祥荣 赵雪娇. 中心城市的溢出效应与城市经济增长——基于中国城市群2000—2012年市级面板数据的经验研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2016, 2(5): 167-.
Jin Xiangrong Zhao Xuejiao. The Spillover Effect of Central City and Urban Economic Growth: Evidences fromPanel Data 2000-2012 of the Urban Agglomeration in China. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2016, 2(5): 167-.
