Does the Development of Digital Economy Improve Regional Economic Resilience? A Research based on Intermediary Effect， Threshold Effect and Spatial Spillover Effect
Abstract：With the development of economic globalization, the relationship between economic entities in various regions has deepened, and at the same time, turbulent crisis in one region will be transmitted to other regions, which may easily lead to negative chain reactions on a global scale. Therefore, the ability of regional economic entities to resist external shocks has attracted much attention and became a research hotspot. Digital economy takes digital industrialization and industry digitalization as the main line, which plays an important role in the stable development of China’s regional economy. Although there are abundant literatures on the influencing factors of regional economic resilience, there are few documents studying the impact of digital economy on regional economic resilience. At the moment when digital economy has gradually become the mainstream, China should improve the resilience of regional economy by playing a greater role of digital economy, which is also the significance of this study.
First of all, based on literature reviews, this paper deeply analyzes the impact mechanism of digital economy on regional economic resilience, and puts forward research assumptions. Secondly, a digital economy development index system is constructed from four perspectives: digital infrastructure, support industry scale, digital application capability and digital governance level. The index system of regional economic resilience is constructed from three dimensions of resilience, adaptability, and innovation and transformation. The digital economic development index and regional economic resilience index of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2009 to 2018 are calculated by the principal component analysis method. Thirdly, based on the research hypothesis, the basic regression model and intermediary effect model are constructed to explore the impact and transmission mechanism of digital economy on regional economic resilience. The threshold model is built to explore the nonlinear impact of digital economy on regional economic resilience. The spatial Dubin model is constructed to analyze the spatial spillover effect of digital economy. Finally, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations to accelerate the development of China’s digital economy and better play the role of digital economy in promoting regional economic resilience based on the research conclusions.
Compared with previous studies, the innovations of this study are mainly reflected in three aspects. First, we use econometric models to reveal that the impact of digital economy on regional economic resilience has not only a direct effect and heterogeneity, but also an intermediary effect. Digital economy has a positive impact on the resilience of regional economy by promoting the level of human capital and innovation capability. Second, the threshold model is used to reveal the nonlinear change nature with increasing marginal effect of the impact of digital economy development on regional economic resilience. In areas where human capital, innovation ability, and R&D intensity cross the threshold, digital economy plays a greater role in promoting regional economic resilience, producing a significant nonlinear promoting effect. Third, the spatial econometric model is used to reveal the characteristics of spatial spillover effect of the impact of digital economy on regional economic resilience. The development of digital economy can not only have a positive effect on the improvement of regional economic resilience, but also produce a positive spillover effect on surrounding regions. This study more comprehensively reveals the characteristics of the impact of digital economy on the resilience of regional economy, which not only enriches the theoretical research of digital economy and regional economy, but also provides decision-making basis for relevant departments in China. Therefore, this study has important theoretical value and practical significance.
李晓钟 吴文皓 顾国达. 数字经济发展能否提升区域经济韧性？——基于中介效应、门槛效应和空间溢出效应研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 0, (): 1-.
Li Xiaozhong Wu Wenhao Gu Guoda. Does the Development of Digital Economy Improve Regional Economic Resilience? A Research based on Intermediary Effect， Threshold Effect and Spatial Spillover Effect. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 0, (): 1-.
